With the presidential election just three weeks away, its effects are already rippling through the market. Key issues such as the economy, taxes, and environmental policy are front and center this election season, all of which could significantly impact the housing market. In fact, we're already seeing how the uncertainty surrounding these topics is influencing real estate decisions. Let’s take a closer look at how these factors might shape affordability, inventory, and overall activity in the Greater Boston housing market—both in the lead-up to the election and beyond.
Affordability
Affordability has been a major concern for both buyers and sellers in the Boston suburbs, especially as home prices have risen in recent years. Higher mortgage rates, which have hovered above 7% at certain points, coupled with the increased cost of living, have made it especially challenging for first-time buyers to enter the market. While higher-end homes continue to attract wealthier buyers, many middle-class families have found themselves priced out of the market in towns like Concord, Lexington, and Winchester. Policy discussions during election cycles often touch on tax incentives, interest rate adjustments, and affordable housing development—all of which could shape the future affordability landscape.
Inventory
Inventory shortages have been an issue across the Greater Boston area for ever, but especially since 2020. There simply aren’t enough homes available to meet demand, and this imbalance drives up prices even further. In the suburbs, where space and amenities like good schools attract families, the competition can be fierce. This can lead to a stalemate, where sellers are reluctant to put their home on the market for fear they won’t find anywhere to move to. Election-year promises related to housing policy—whether expanding zoning for new developments or offering incentives for builders—could significantly impact inventory levels in the future.
Activity
Presidential elections can have an undue influence on the real estate market even on a local level. Some buyers and sellers adopt a wait-and-see approach during election years, particularly if policies affecting interest rates, taxation, or housing affordability are on the ballot. The 2024 election, with the cost of living as a prominent issue, may introduce uncertainty into the market, causing people to hit pause on their moving plans until there's more clarity on policies. However this could spell opportunity for the savvy buyer, who may find themselves able to negotiate a better deal with less competition around. Likewise, a flexible seller who is able to jump into the market and capitalize on the lack of inventory could end up a winner.
The good news is, we often see a bounce-back in activity following the election, and we are already seeing strong indications that the spring market in 2025 will start early and be more robust than previous seasons. To find out what impact the election could have on your specific moving plans, get in touch with one of our real estate advisors. You can also read about how election cycles affect the housing market across the globe in Sotheby’s International Realty’s latest blog.